{"id":610,"date":"2020-04-20T09:46:32","date_gmt":"2020-04-20T09:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/countysplash.co.ke\/?p=610"},"modified":"2020-04-20T09:46:32","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T09:46:32","slug":"statistics-around-coronavirus-pandemic-in-kenya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610","title":{"rendered":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kakamega<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Prof John Muoma<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we move to\nthe next level of the Covid-19 pandemic, we continue to appreciate the\nimportance of statistics in planning. The quadratic polynomial model which is\npreferred at the planning stage was to guide us for the first 30 days and true\nto itself it was in sync with the data availed with a reasonable margin of\nerror. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Prof John Muoma<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After the first 30 days, the model assumes we had put up structures in-terms of adequate test centres, availed testing material, set up clear tracing mechanism, established enough isolation centres, with adequate personnel to manage the treatment centres. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could the authorisation to build a hospital in Wuhan China in a record 10 days followed by total lockdown been advised based on a point envisaged using a statistical model? Was it part of the plan in preparation of the exponential phase of the pandemic? <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Could the authorisation to build a hospital in Wuhan China in a record 10 days followed by total lockdown been advised based on a point envisaged using a statistical model? Was it part of the plan in preparation of the exponential phase of the pandemic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Prof John Muoma<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After utilizing\nthe first 30 days for planning, the model assumes that the study is able to\ntest a statistically reasonable number of individuals who are representative of\nthe population. At this point the tool assumes the infection rate is at an\nexponential level and Exponential model is of preference at this point of study\naccording to https:\/\/ksmakhanu.blogspot.com\/2020\/03\/predicting-covid-19-cases-in-kenya.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 The exponential model, predicts that the\nnumber of infected people at day 37 would be about 2,972 or there about instead\nof 262 as reported by the Kenyan government. A good reason to the concerned to\nreview their approach so as to quickly move from the planning stage and start\nmass testing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the US\nexperience where the government took long to respond, the outcome has been\ndevastating with 37,000 deaths as of 19th<\/sup> April 2020 according to\nHarvard Global Institute. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The situation\nthough could have been managed better with timely action. Currently in the US\nmass testing is ongoing with an increase in people tested and equally an\nincrease in the number of recoveries. According to Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global\nHealth Institute, \u201cIf you have a very high positive rate, it means that there\nare probably a good number of people out there who have the disease who you\nhaven\u2019t tested,\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the need for more testing, the United States case has reached non-zero equilibrium point; what journalists are referring to as flattening out of the infection curve. This kind of infection curve informs the optimist that the number has reached a threshold and if managed well the curve may level off and dip downwards. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the contrary, this could be a silent incubation period which if not managed well may explode and the infected cases may rise again. Both though true depends on the action plan put in place by the state in management when the point is attained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CDC data indicate that 30 per cent of the Covid-19 cases are black despite making up 13 per cent of the population in the United States. A good number of Americans have access to good medical facilities and insurance: what will happen when the virus explodes in Kenya where only 20 per cent of the population have some form of medical insurance? <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In Kenya, once we are able to test\na statistically reasonable number of people, we will be moving towards the\nexponential phase, which requires better preparation. Hence, we will need more\ntesting centres around the country, Equip the hospitals with ventilators and\nhave better isolation facilities as some of the solutions to enable us mitigate\nthe Covid 19 situation better in response to the model prediction of drastic\nincrease in the infected cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CDC data indicate that 30 per cent\nof the Covid-19 cases are black despite making up 13 per cent of the population\nin the United States. A good number of Americans have access to good medical\nfacilities and insurance: what will happen when the virus explodes in Kenya\nwhere only 20 per cent of the population have some form of medical insurance? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Basically the 80 per cent who\ndon\u2019t have medical insurance and reside in poor condition will be worst hit and\nmay be victims of the virus. In the poor settlements the WHO requirements in\nterms of social Distancing, personal hygiene and keeping our environment clean\nwill be hard to abide to due to overcrowding which will favour the spread of\nthe virus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The governments approach to cushion the low-income population by giving them financial support is timely and a welcome gesture. This will enable the beneficiaries get their basic needs going during the lockdown and probably prepare them better health wise to manage the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An Immunologist and nutritional expert suggests that the government should consider giving them food supplement as a mitigation measure in preparation of the unknown especially for the elderly. This may enable the most vulnerable manage the upcoming situation better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof.\nMuoma is a Professor of Plant Biotechnology and the current Director of Science\nPark, Innovation and Incubation Centre (SPIIC) at Masinde Muliro University of\nScience and Technology (Mmust).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ends <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kakamega By Prof John Muoma As we move to the next level of the Covid-19 pandemic, we continue to appreciate the importance of statistics in planning. The quadratic polynomial model which is preferred at the planning stage was to guide us for the first 30 days and true to itself it was in sync with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":579,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-kenya-news"],"yoast_head":"\nStatistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kakamega By Prof John Muoma As we move to the next level of the Covid-19 pandemic, we continue to appreciate the importance of statistics in planning. The quadratic polynomial model which is preferred at the planning stage was to guide us for the first 30 days and true to itself it was in sync with […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Horizon News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horizonnewsglobal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Horizon News\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Horizon News\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Horizon News\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/0aaeb0e26ff89059b5ef81bcf454e3c4\"},\"headline\":\"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\"},\"wordCount\":881,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Kenya News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\",\"name\":\"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg\",\"width\":960,\"height\":720,\"caption\":\"Prof John Muoma\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/\",\"name\":\"Horizon News\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Horizon News\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/WhatsApp-Image-2023-04-15-at-15.18.04.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/WhatsApp-Image-2023-04-15-at-15.18.04.jpg\",\"width\":483,\"height\":483,\"caption\":\"Horizon News\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horizonnewsglobal\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/0aaeb0e26ff89059b5ef81bcf454e3c4\",\"name\":\"Horizon News\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/af3de1890d7bafb4d1ac800e2af2660a9e865de75a28be465963ab3744754490?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/af3de1890d7bafb4d1ac800e2af2660a9e865de75a28be465963ab3744754490?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Horizon News\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?author=4\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News","og_description":"Kakamega By Prof John Muoma As we move to the next level of the Covid-19 pandemic, we continue to appreciate the importance of statistics in planning. The quadratic polynomial model which is preferred at the planning stage was to guide us for the first 30 days and true to itself it was in sync with […]","og_url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610","og_site_name":"Horizon News","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horizonnewsglobal","article_published_time":"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00","og_image":[{"width":960,"height":720,"url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Horizon News","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Horizon News","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610"},"author":{"name":"Horizon News","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/0aaeb0e26ff89059b5ef81bcf454e3c4"},"headline":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya","datePublished":"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610"},"wordCount":881,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg","articleSection":["Kenya News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610","url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610","name":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya - Horizon News","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg","datePublished":"2020-04-20T09:46:32+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/prof-muoma-4.jpg","width":960,"height":720,"caption":"Prof John Muoma"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=610#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Statistics on Coronavirus pandemic in Kenya"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#website","url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/","name":"Horizon News","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#organization","name":"Horizon News","url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/WhatsApp-Image-2023-04-15-at-15.18.04.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/WhatsApp-Image-2023-04-15-at-15.18.04.jpg","width":483,"height":483,"caption":"Horizon News"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/horizonnewsglobal"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/0aaeb0e26ff89059b5ef81bcf454e3c4","name":"Horizon News","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/af3de1890d7bafb4d1ac800e2af2660a9e865de75a28be465963ab3744754490?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/af3de1890d7bafb4d1ac800e2af2660a9e865de75a28be465963ab3744754490?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Horizon News"},"url":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?author=4"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}