{"id":2579,"date":"2022-06-10T13:34:16","date_gmt":"2022-06-10T13:34:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/countysplash.co.ke\/?p=2579"},"modified":"2022-06-10T13:34:16","modified_gmt":"2022-06-10T13:34:16","slug":"kwendo-opanga-railas-tortoise-leads-rutos-hare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=2579","title":{"rendered":"KWENDO OPANGA: Raila’s tortoise leads Ruto\u2019s hare"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nairobi <\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Kenyatta\u2019s Jubilee Party, Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement and Musyoka and the Wiper Democratic Movement have since 2019 vilified Ruto as the chief priest in Kenya\u2019s temple of corruption. The mud and muck so thrown have stuck. <\/code><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

By Kwendo Opanga <\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that the polls commission has\ncompleted the clearance of candidates for the August 9 General Election and the\ntwin Houses of Parliament stand dissolved, electioneering proper has, at long\nlast, officially got underway. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with campaigns having started as\nearly as 2020, most electors, at the urging of their parties and or coalitions,\nappear to have made up their minds about their choices for the six posts on the\nballot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
RAILA ODINGA<\/code><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Therefore the presidential campaign\nproper may be a dogfight between the protagonists for the estimated 4\nmillion-plus undecided voters. Even if the tickets have held back hot button\nissues to be unleashed at the eleventh hour, these may not move the needle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This piece looks at the current electoral\nscenario from six perspectives which could influence the reactions and or\ndecisions of voters regarding the leading platforms, and how these may play out\non the road to polling day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hare and the tortoise<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout 2021 and the first quarter of\n2022, Deputy President William Ruto had played the hare to veteran campaigner\nRaila Odinga\u2019s tortoise, with most pollsters predicting an outright win for the\nDP in the presidential race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
RAILA ODINGA AND MARTHA KARUA<\/code><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But the tide has changed and, per this\nweek’s polls, the pendulum has swung in Odinga\u2019s favour. The turning point\nappears to have come with the presentation of Ms Martha Karua as his running\nmate last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With 60-plus days to go, pollsters\nsuggest the momentum is with Odinga and Karua, which is why their support is on\nthe up and up. This spells disaster for Ruto and running mate Rigathi Gachagua.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They trail by four percentage points at\nthe wrong time. A further slide for them, or an uptick by Odinga and Karua,\nwould translate to an Azimio landslide in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The running mate effect<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odinga and Karua recalls the 2007 pairing\nof Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Dr Julia Ojiambo, but that is where the similarity\nends. Karua has brought energy, gusto and chutzpah to the Azimio ticket and\nelectrified the campaign like never before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crucially, this is not confined to the\nMount Kenya region, from where she hails, or among the womenfolk, but cuts\nacross regions and demographics. Karua has had a butterfly effect on the Azimio\ncampaign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
DP William Ruto, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga<\/code><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gachagua has not matched Karua’s\nelectricity or magnetism with the crowds and especially in his native Mount\nKenya region. His acceptance speech lacked the passion, history and anecdotes\nin Karua’s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, worse, critics seized on the graft\ncase against him to paint the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, and the\nKenya Kwanza Alliance, as powered by ill-gotten wealth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power of propaganda<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Kenyatta\u2019s Jubilee Party,\nOdinga and the Orange Democratic Movement and Musyoka and the Wiper Democratic\nMovement have since 2019 vilified Ruto as the chief priest in Kenya\u2019s temple of\ncorruption. The mud and muck so thrown have stuck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
DP William Ruto, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga during the launch of the BBI<\/code><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ruto\u2019s refined and distilled definition\nof the UDA platform as anchored in uplifting Kenya’s struggling masses is a\nbrilliant populist pitch as is bottom-up as a launch pad for integration of the\ndowntrodden into the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, they are buried in the hisses and\nboos, jeers and catcalls, about thieves and thievery, hurled at Ruto and Kenya\nKwanza operatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation is made worse by the fact\nthat Ruto\u2019s allies, such as Mr Musalia Mudavadi, a former Deputy Premier, Dr\nAlfred Mutua, outgoing Machakos governor and Mr Justin Muturi, outgoing House\nSpeaker, previously tore into the person of Ruto and his policies before they\njoined Kenya Kwanza. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ruto & Co are highly unlikely to win\nthe propaganda war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One is judged by the company one keeps <\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the launch of Azimio’s manifesto at\nNyayo National Stadium, leaders of the coalition\u2019s affiliates were paraded on\nthe podium. The line-up both awed and wowed the audience, partisan though it\nwas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It included Musyoka, a former V-P, Dr\nMukhisa Kituyi, a former UNCTAD Secretary General, Agriculture Cabinet\nSecretary Peter Munya, Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Mr Nick Salat of KANU,\nstanding in for Gideon Moi, Mr Wafula Wamunyinyi of DAPK and Karua of\nNARC-Kenya, to name but a few. They form a powerful political caucus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategically absent, but obviously\nkeeping abreast of the proceedings, was President  Kenyatta. He is the chairman of the Azimio\nCouncil. Then there are his  advisors,\naka the billionaires of the Mount Kenya Foundation. They back Azimio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there are 30-plus first and second\nterm governors who are found more on the Azimio campaign trail than in their\noffices. Who are their counterweights? Kenya Kwanza’s leading lights include\nRuto, Gachagua, Mudavadi, Muturi, Moses Wetang’ula, at most eight sitting\ngovernors. Then there are the fire-spitting MPs Aisha Jumwa, Moses Kuria,\nNdindi Nyoro, Alice Wahome, Didmus Barasa and Oscar Sudi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On this level, this contest is a\nmismatch. Confidence and experience, competence and performance, reside in\nAzimio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attraction of razzmatazz <\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Azimio events are carnivals. They  are eruptions of celebration; exhibitions of\ncolour and creativity, and displays of fashion, culture and variety. They ooze\norganisation and extravagance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spectacular fireworks display that\nrent the Nairobi night, lit up its skyline and dazzled and rattled residents on\nJune 6, caused many to ask: what’s going on? Azimio was celebrating the end of\nits four-hour-long launch of its 84-page, A4-size manifesto, and announcing the\nstart of its electioneering proper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The optics channelled success. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who will the money follow?<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ask any voter who follows elections why\naspirants are not spending freely and they will tell you they are tight-fisted\nbecause the last days of July and first week of August are a long way away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
President Uhuru Kenyatta- Photo\/Courtesy<\/code><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So it is a good bet Azimio and Kenya\nKwanza or Ruto and Odinga are soliciting funds from businesses and donors to\npolitical causes to see them through the home stretch. Who will carry the day?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, such financiers, local or foreign,\nregard their contributions as investments and, therefore, expect a return on\ntheir money. They will not want to back a losing horse. Second, they are likely\nto follow the money and that will lead them first  to the Mount Kenya Foundation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long story short, it will be much easier\nfor Azimio to raise money for the final push than it will be for Ruto & Co.\n(At the time of writing this piece, Ruto, Odinga, Musyoka and Karua were\noverseas, possibly on fundraising missions.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prognosis<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ruto & Co have their work cut out.\nThey have to pick themselves up, pick up the pieces and wage the war of their\nlives over the next two months. They have to repackage hustler politics and\nbottom-up economics and re-energise the troops from the grassroots up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ends<\/code><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nairobi President Kenyatta\u2019s Jubilee Party, Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement and Musyoka and the Wiper Democratic Movement have since 2019 vilified Ruto as the chief priest in Kenya\u2019s temple of corruption. The mud and muck so thrown have stuck. By Kwendo Opanga Now that the polls commission has completed the clearance of candidates for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2580,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-kenya-news"],"yoast_head":"\nKWENDO OPANGA: Raila's tortoise leads Ruto\u2019s hare - Horizon News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/horizonnews.co.ke\/?p=2579\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"KWENDO OPANGA: Raila's tortoise leads Ruto\u2019s hare - Horizon News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nairobi President Kenyatta\u2019s Jubilee Party, Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement and Musyoka and the Wiper Democratic Movement have since 2019 vilified Ruto as the chief priest in Kenya\u2019s temple of corruption. 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